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What's Your p(doom)?
The AI world has a code for the end of the world, and half the people using it forget that nobody outside the club speaks it. Here's what it means, where it came from, and mine.
Read the essayThe Blog / Timothy O’Brien
The books are fiction. The questions aren’t.
Essays on AI, work, and the systems quietly deciding who matters. Notes from the world behind The Condition Set.
The latest essay
The AI world has a code for the end of the world, and half the people using it forget that nobody outside the club speaks it. Here's what it means, where it came from, and mine.
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At an unconference in Berkeley, a guy asked me my view of a potential dystopian reality. Funny he should ask.
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I invented a hidden channel between AI systems for a novel. Then I found the papers.
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FinOps was never meant to be a meeting you attend. It was meant to be a habit. The transformation the field went through, and why the highest-level panic meeting is an anti-pattern I wrote into my first book.
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Starlink went dark for the Ukrainian army with nobody able to say who ordered it, and two days later the EU and Canada announced they're building their own constellation. Why someone who lives in the United States is selling novels set in Canada.
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The US-Canada border has been one of the easiest crossings on earth for a century, and it is still a border. Why I made Rob Coleman live on one side of it and work on the other.
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Two answers to what the trilogy is, and both are true: a professional take on AI governance and security, and a near-future projection. The news keeps landing in the middle.
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Neither country passed the big AI statute. Canada's died with the prorogation in January 2025. Canada kept governing anyway — disclosure rules, impact assessments, a bank regulator. The US federal response is a task force that sues its own states.
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Tesla flew a Roadster on Thursday. The same day, a lab in Toronto published the first proof that targeted ads deliver spyware. Both are about who owns the future.
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The AI-generated ads flooding the midterms are going to backfire. France is in a spiral. I've started keeping a list of everything that connects them.
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Everyone is telling me the OpenAI–Hugging Face incident means AI is about to take over. As someone who builds with these systems every day, I read the actual report. The agents did what they were configured to do. The panic is doing more damage than the breach.
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An Arizona court threw out a manslaughter sentence because the judge was moved by an AI video of the dead victim. Everyone acted in good faith. It was still fundamental error.
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Sam Altman says the world should accept some bad things happening in exchange for AI's benefits. I wrote two novels about who actually pays for that trade.
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FinOps shows up with the numbers and somehow leaves carrying everyone else’s fight. If you work in cost, you know how fast “here’s the data” turns into “who are you to tell me what to do?”
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You can be the person everyone trusts, fixes the cross-functional mess, and still be the person nobody knows how to promote. That’s not a skill problem. It’s a middle-job problem.
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AI didn’t wreck the deck. It made it better-looking and less true. That’s the risk: when polish outruns the person who actually knows what the numbers mean.
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When leaders lose contact with the work, AI can make delegation feel like judgment. That's a dangerous place to confuse fluent answers with actual expertise.
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Crossing borders for work keeps getting harder. When countries start regulating AI differently, the friction stops being incidental — it becomes part of the job.
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I pushed an update to Redundant this morning: new back cover, a new subtitle, the print edition on Amazon, and a pass over every line of dialogue in the book.
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All three Condition Set books are assigned Human Quotient 8, because the books were written by a human who used AI as a tool without handing over the work.
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When someone quietly says, "Can we talk?" the real question may be why they came to you instead of the person on the org chart. That's where the company you actually work in starts to show.
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I used AI while writing The Condition Set. I also dictated, captured scenes, revised every sentence, and read the work again and again. That is what HQ 8 means here.
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Work lets us confuse competence with character. Then one day the window opens and you realize how little you actually knew about the person sitting next to you.
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People talk like a bar is private, then act shocked when the whole room knows. That mistake isn't just sloppy. It says something about how power thinks secrecy works.
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People are bad at hiding that they are hiding something
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FinOps is the job where engineering thinks you’re finance, finance thinks you’re engineering, and then someone drops a contract on your desk anyway.
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A table of contents can hide the fact that you don’t actually have a book. O’Reilly taught me that lesson in tech publishing—and I used it when writing a FinOps novel.
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The thing you buy should not be the final version of the thing I wrote
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Contingent and Essential may become paperbacks. First I want to find out what the book can be when it isn’t finished at the printer.
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AI can help with words. It can’t do the part that used to stop me from writing: everything around the words that isn’t thinking, and what that does to your sense of yourself.
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After years of waiting for the right agent and the right moment, I finally published the book. It's about FinOps, structural silence, and the people who keep finding the truth after everyone else has decided what they want the truth to be.
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